IndyTruth Blog
Closer than you think: The Republican Presidential Primaries 
Saturday, August 18, 2007, 03:13 AM - Elections
Posted by Administrator
There are many methods for polling the public on presidential candidates, and in this race the polls more debated than ever. Whether the polls are "scientific", straw or online, those who do not fare well are quick to criticize the accuracy of the poll and point bias in the direction of the winners. In search of accurate statistics about the status of the 2008 presidential race, I started analyzing data from all three types of polls for Republican race.

My analysis started with collection poll data from the introduction of Fred Thompson (for sake of consistency in percentages). After collecting data, an average was made of each poll type over the last two months. The results were as follows:

RP=Ron Paul, RG=Rudy Giuliani, MR=Mitt Romney, FT=Fred Thompson, JM=John McCain, MH=Mike Huckabee, SB=Sam Brownback, TT=Tom Tancredo, DH=Duncan Hunter, UO=Unsure or other.

The "scientific" polls are led by the media-labelled "first tier" candidates, Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, McCain. "Unsure" votes also thrive in these polls, which may indicate that their voters are less politically involved. The so-called "second tier" candidates as well as Mitt Romney did best in the straw polls, which I consider to be an indicator of active grassroots support. The online polls, comprised of polls from social networking sites as well as political sites, show Paul, Thompson and Giuliani in the lead. Each poll type has its advantages and disadvantages, so an average of the three may be the most fair, appropriate and accurate depiction of the real status of the election:

The averages above are made up of polls conducted between July 7 and August 12, 2007. A progressive look at the campaigns adds a new dimension to our analysis. Scientific polls tend to benefit the more popular names and well-funded campaigns. However, trends this summer show the favor of these polls turning.

Over the summer, Romney and McCain each decreased by more than one percent of the vote between averages of the first set of polls (June 1-10) and the second set of polls (June 23-July 29). Most of the candidates are falling.

Where are their votes going? Two percent of the votes lost by most of the candidates went to "unsure" or "undecided." Paul, Giuliani, and Brownback each increased by a fraction of one percent of the vote. Fred Thomas had saw an increase of over four percent of the vote.

Who really showed the most improvement though? Giuliani grew by less than two percent. Thomas grew by 25 percent. Brown and Paul actually demonstrated the most campaign growth, with Brown growing by 30 percent and Paul by 33 percent.

Voters in the scientific polls are turning away from their traditional voting habits, and moving toward "second tier" candidates at a rate that may alarm the major campaigns. In Michigan, Paul & Brownback each picked up 14.3% of votes that dropped from the Giuliani and McCain campaigns between April 14 and July 7. In New Hampshire, they each gained 8% from other candidates or undecided voters between March 31 and June 8.

With the media attention earned by a strong showing at the Iowa Straw Poll, the "second tier" candidates may see even more improvement in scientific polls this month. The fact is, such classification of candidates by the media is inaccurate. Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Sam Brownback are showing improvement on many fronts. The straw polls and online polls, which are no less "scientific" than the allegedly scientific polls, are in the favor of candidates who are not promoted by the mainstream media. The diversity of these candidates' following, especially for Ron Paul, is infecting the monopolized polls.

Remember, the number of people getting their news from television and newspapers is declining. The media cannot monopolize the presidential primaries for 2008 like they have in the past. The neo-conservative takeover of our Republic has motivated the people to transcend the propaganda and seek a new direction. Candidates like Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich are no longer "long shots." The ideas that they are running on are stronger than the control mechanisms of the elite. This Spring it is more important than ever to vote for the BEST candidate (not the lesser of evils). Even the Las Vegas experts are giving them good odds, and the house always wins.

Scientific and some straw poll data retrieved from USAElectionPolls.Com. Straw polls used were the New Hampshire Taxpayers Straw Poll, Iowa Straw Poll, and the recent Illinois Straw Poll. Online polls used were Pajamas Media, a weekly, one-IP poll on a political web site, the "FreedomWorks Straw Poll", Vote On the Book and the Facebook-specific Newsvine polls, which allow one vote per Facebook account.

Submitted by Douglass.
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